This study presents a systematic review of the usage of quantitative trend extrapolation methods in technology forecasting. It categorizes the techniques applied in 25 relevant studies and notes the popularity of growth curves and time series methods. The study also points out the emergence of machine learning-based hybrid models in recent years. The paper indicates that more research is needed to determine if these hybrid models are superior to traditional methods, but anticipates a growing trend in their application to technology forecasting.
Publication date: 8 Jan 2024
Project Page: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219877023300021
Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02549
