The largest survey of its kind polled 2,778 AI researchers on their predictions for the future of AI. Participants estimated a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously creating a payment processing site and a popular musician-like song. The possibility of AI outperforming humans in every task was estimated at 10% by 2027 and 50% by 2047. Despite optimism about AI’s potential, many respondents expressed concern over risks, such as the spread of false information and authoritarian population control. The study concludes that research aimed at minimizing potential risks from AI systems should be prioritized.
Publication date: 8 Jan 2024
Project Page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843
Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843
